Bank of America: Mexico – A drift, not a dip; the labor market says so

In the first quarter, Mexico’s GDP contracted by 3.2%, indicating continuing weak growth. The country’s productivity has stagnated, with job growth at approximately 0% since 2022, now turning negative. While policymakers may increase spending and lower rates, essential structural reforms remain unaddressed.

Key takeaways:

• 1Q was another weak-growth quarter: GDP contracted -3.2% quarter over quarter, seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), extending Mexico’s soft patch.

• We think the weakness is not just cyclical: productivity drag is showing up in jobs – about 0% year over year since 2022, now negative.

• Policy may lean easier to support activity: higher spending and lower rates, but structural fixes are still missing.

Further Reading:

Four Years Ago, We Published This. Sadly, We Were Right.

National Drug Control Strategy 2026

Luis Maizel’s Monthly Letter: The United States, a Polarized Nation in Search of Direction.

IMF’s World Economic Outlook (Full Report).

Governor Of Sinaloa And Nine Other Current And Former Mexican Officials Charged With Drug Trafficking And Weapons Offenses.

Global Economy In The Shadow of War.

War and the Principles of the Negotiation Process.

World Happiness Report

U.S. Voter Attitudes Towards the U.S.-Mexico Relationship.