Eurasia Group Top Risks 2026

The year 2026 marks significant geopolitical instability, driven by an unpredictable U.S. political shift and ongoing global conflicts. While some nations, like China and India, bolster their positions, Europe faces heightened challenges. An AI revolution is also underway, complicating governance. The global landscape is turbulent, with lasting implications for future generations.

Venezuela’s Strategic Role in Global Conflicts.

The power of weapons is evident. A country that spends nearly $200 billion annually on defense, invests around $200 million daily, and, at least in theoretical terms, has the best army in the world, should be able to impose its will. Both the United States and Russia boast cutting-edge armed forces, but recent experience has shown that theoretical superiority does not guarantee victory.

Neither Less Poverty, Nor Less Violence.

The National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEGI) reported optimistic economic data for Mexico, claiming job growth and reduced crime. However, real incomes are declining, and most workers are in the informal sector, leading to increased poverty. The government’s statistics misrepresent the harsh realities facing many citizens, particularly regarding violence and economic hardship.

The Complex Nature of Democracy: Insights and Quotes

Democracy is a complex concept that varies in interpretation, providing a framework for governance and legitimacy in society. Mexico’s current Morena government has approached democracy in a literal sense, raising concerns about its procedural integrity and the representation of public preferences. The quality of democracy in Latin America remains critically at stake.

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Michael Ignatieff explores the necessity of promoting trust and overcoming division in diverse societies in “Everyday Virtues.” He emphasizes the importance of a strong societal framework for coexistence, reflecting on global examples. Additionally, innovative publications by various authors and artists celebrate culture and humanity, enriching our understanding of history and the present.

2025: A Year to Remember.

The end of the year reflects a challenging global climate, with wars and economic instability. Trump’s administration has shifted power dynamics in the U.S., sidelining traditional political structures. The upcoming USMCA renegotiation will be crucial for regional economic stability, as issues of leadership ineptitude underline a deeper crisis in democracy and governance.

My Readings in 2025.

In times of upheaval, many books emerge addressing significant geopolitical and historical themes. Noteworthy titles include Hal Brands’ exploration of Eurasian geopolitics and Claudio Lomnitz’s analysis of Mexico’s dual realities. Robert Kaplan’s pessimistic insights mirror the Weimar Republic, highlighting the fragility of democracy, while Timothy W. Ryback details Hitler’s rise without popular support.

The Nobel Prize in Economics is Explained Simply.

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt won the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics for their contributions to understanding economic growth through “creative destruction.” Their work clarified how innovation transforms markets, enhancing productivity and well-being, while emphasizing the necessity for continuous renewal as a driver of societal advancement and economic resilience.

The Role of Ethics in Global Politics and Human History.

The content discusses the role of ethics in history and modern society, highlighting global challenges such as migration, racial tensions, and governance failures, particularly in the U.S. and Mexico. It emphasizes the need for ethical leadership and cooperation in addressing crises, while critiquing demagoguery and the loss of democratic values.

U.S. National Security Strategy.

This official report of the United States Government outlines the priorities of the Trump administration concerning foreign policy, revealing a shift in its geopolitical strategy and values.

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